realizing you're an outsider
In the last couple days, despite all the media hoopla about our country being so evenly divided between the parties, I formulated a disturbing idea that I cannot shake: this is not my country.
For the past month or two, I had been force-feeding myself the notion that the Kerry campaign was simply bungling this campaign. I needed an explanation for his inability to break through despite 18 months of continuous bad news from Iraq, no sign of Osama bin Laden or Mullah Omar, a couple years of iffy economic news, and a blatantly unflinching and uncompromising hard-core conservative agenda from an administration which failed to garner any real mandate in the 2000 popular vote.
Now that I reflect more on these election cycles, though, I think the cold, hard reality is that the nation really did shift dramatically to the right over the past 25 years. Bill Clinton was an aberration. Let's face it. The guy A) was a southerner, B) certainly was not a liberal in the mold of LBJ, JFK, or FDR (or John Kerry), C) was a force to be reckoned with on the campaign trail, and D) had big-time help from Ross Perot in 1992 and from the general lameness of the Dole '96 ticket. In 2000, despite basking in the reflected glory of a golden age in American history, an enormous advantage in national experience, great intelligence, and no personal blemishes, Al Gore still lost to a guy who with almost no experience in government or in the use of the English language. And now, despite all the insanity of 2002 through 2004, John Kerry is still in real danger of losing to the same guy in November.
The media can talk all it wants about an evenly divided nation, but I'm not buying it. I think the reality is that if the economy had not been awesome in 2000, Bush could have defeated Gore in runaway fashion. And if this administration had only prosecuted the simpler, justified war in Afghanistan in the fall of 2001 rather than also shooting itself in the foot with the Iraq debacle of 2003-2004, this coming election could have been a near-landslide victory for Bush.
Bottom line: Bush can tout himself as a compassionate conservative with some success. Yet the Kerry campaign must avoid the term liberal as if it was a synonym for Communist. That state of affairs says a lot. Can you imagine John Kerry trying to label himself as the mirror image of a compassionate conservative? At this point, saying something like "I'm a hard-nosed liberal" would be tantamount to political suicide (a la Walter Mondale's famous 1984 "I will raise taxes" speech).
When the Bush campaign spouts its line about John Kerry being out of the mainstream, it hurts because unlike the Swift Boat crap, there is some real truth to it. I guess I am still hopeful for this specific election because the Republicans are stuck with a ticket and a track record that, deep down, even they must know is pretty effing horrible. But the bare fact that this election is close has left me in despair about a future where the GOP will be putting up good candidates. Or at least candidates who are not George W. Bush.
Damn. Being a liberal-bordering-on-socialist sucks right now. Maybe I should just give up. Its no fun being left out in the cold. Where do I sign up to be a NASCAR dad? Are there classes I could take??
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In other depressing news, in his Senate campaign against uber-incumbent Arlen Specter, Democrat Joe Hoeffel has resorted to television commercials in which there is an embarrassingly obvious acknowledgement of the fact that Pennsylvania still has no clue who Joe Hoeffel is with only six weeks to go until election day. The TV spots essentially just repeat the name "Joe Hoeffel" a dozen times over 30 seconds with spiffy graphics constantly lighting up the word "Hoeffel" each time the narrator says the name.
If I were a gambling man, I think I'd be ready to wager my first born child on Specter in this one, even with the potential battleground state turnout for Kerry.